the AR device that "wins" is also further off than people think it is

Obviously, nobody can know, but what are your numbers for “further off” and “what people think”?

It seems to me that the medical, military and heavy industries will continue to experiment with AR, as it presents stellar opportunities for breakthroughs in training and maintenance. VR intrinsically takes more artwork because you have to generate the whole world, not just superimpose some stuff on an existing one. When apple releases their AR product suite, that should be considered the starting gun for the AR gold rush. The Magic Leap system which i have not tried is underwhelming those that have used it. A lot of this has to do with graphic horsepower; to make AR work well, you gotta crunch the voxels, and that takes raw horsepower. I don't know the story behind Magic Leam. Sometimes they resembler Theranos in terms of the secrecy and buzz factor that they cultivated.

What people think is in the next few years or less