Alan Kay as a formative member of the amazing Xerox Palo Alto Research Center has a great place in history, as they created most of what the computer industry took the next 50 years to commercialize. But his statement that "it is easier to invent the future than predict it", is completely untrue. Bret Victor's work showed prototypes of a future programming interface that is proving extremely difficult to invent. I have little doubt that future programming interfaces will be much more "live" and interactive. Fairly easy to mock-up isolated examples, but extremely difficult to build in practice on larger real projects. Another great counter-example are the written works of Jules Verne. He predicted the future so accurately, and so far in advance, that his novels were not accepted by his publisher as fiction, but were considered wild fantasies and therefore only suitable for children. He predicted ecoterrorism, radar, television, rays of unusual qualities, aerial combat, and probably 100 more things that actually happened, that were many decades ahead of their invention.