Future of Coding is an online community with a welcoming, cooperative, and revolutionary spirit. We are unified in the belief that the common practice of programming is tragically less humane than it could be.

Future of Coding

```What the Long Nose tells us is that any technology that is going to have significant impact in the next 10 years is already at least 10 years old. Any technology that is going to have significant impact in the next 5 years is already at least 15 years old, and likely still below the radar.  Hence, beware of anyone arguing for some "new"idea that is "going to"take off in the next 5 years, unless they can trace its history back for 15.6 If they cannot do so, most likely they are either wrong, or have not done their homework```
<http://www.billbuxton.com/01%20The%20Long%20Nose%20of%20Innovation%20Revised.pdf>

``` it is important to understand that it didn't matter that most people who saw it knew immediately that it was a good idea.  It didn't matter that the benefits could be demonstrated.  It still wasn't ready for prime time.  Not only did the mouse need to be refined, so did practically the entire ecosystem required to exploit its potential:  the components of the graphical user interface, graphics displays and processors, applications, operating systems, etc.  One generally needs a "perfect storm", created by the maturing of all of the key components of the ecosystem, before any "invention" reaches the tipping point of broad adoption.```

I'd argue that should be "Has a 10 year old practical (not necessarily popular) consumer implementation".  Newton -&gt; iPhone fit that timeline, but you could argue that mobile didn't really dominate computing until 5-10 years after iPhone shipped

but the Dynabook as a concept is from 1972... so that's like 35 years from concept (I know Dynabook isn't exactly a modern smartphone or tablet, but close enough) to first popular consumer implementation

I actually think this timeline might get longer the harder the tech is to get "right"