Has this prediction come to pass? If not, why not? Discuss. Why computer modeling should become a popular hobby (1996)

I think it's fragmented into many things. If it's playing with the finished article, there's an amazing depth of vehicle simulation games. If it's the building, there's any number of epic Minecraft builds. If it's the detailed simulations then I think it's harder to demonstrate that there's a large number of them about, but Dwarf Fortress is categorically someone building an epic interconnected ecological web of dwarves. And we must also consider the availablity of 3D printing, where one can make a model of a real world thing and make it real once again.

"Popular hobby": no. We don't have computer modeling clubs where people show off their latest creations and exchange tips for working around software limitations. At best, computer modeling is a nerd hobby. The article reads a bit like Alan Kay's "Computers for children of all ages", but with a higher lower bound on the age. As a professional whose whole discipline is about computer modeling, I have repeatedly regretted that even most of my colleagues don't really do computer modeling any more. For my analysis, see this Onwards! paper.